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For now, just a comment on the case you adduce in support of your sketch of why knowledge sometimes requires stability. I don't think it's an accident that the cases to which you appeal to support your intuition tend to involve memory. At least for me, in many of these examples it's hard to disentangle the stability of a memorially based belief from the reliability of the memorial faculty that gave rise to the belief. As a reliabilist, I feel inclined to say that these cases thus are not cases involving knowledge -- not because of instability, but because of unreliability.



Thanks again for the comments. I want to point out that, even on your diagnosis, instability is involved. For my memory is now reliable (I just recited the number). The problem is that the reliability of my memory is unstable over the relevant span of time. So maybe I have misdiagnosed the instability as instability of belief whereas the relevant instability is instability of the reliability of memory (though I am not sure off hand how these two relate). Interesting.

Matt Weiner

This is a good case--I agree that it's appropriate to say you don't know. I think one possible diagnosis may be that the kind of justification you have isn't the kind of justification that's necessary for knowledge in this case. Just as in lottery cases you can have a JTB that's short of knowledge because your justification is probabilistic rather than the result of direct observation, here you have a JTB that's short of knowledge because your justification comes from the number's being stored in your short-term rather than medium-term memory (or something like that).


Thanks Matt. My own view of the lottery paradox is that it also involves a variety of (truth) instability, so I am not willing to go along with you. Roughly, there are relevant nearby worlds in which it is true that the ticket is a winner. Still, it is interesting that there are analagous moves to be had on either approach. I'll think more about the suggestion.

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